Key factors fueling this murkiness include escalating tariffs and trade disruptions, which have hammered small businesses and export-reliant sectors. The Tax Foundation estimates imposed tariffs will reduce long-run U.S. GDP by 0.7% when including retaliation, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline despite claims of repatriation.

In our latest video update, we review the action of the year, and the portfolio changes we implemented to position you for the "winds of change" in financial markets. Finally, we discuss the mixed bag of potential outcomes markets face in 2026, and our thoughts on markets as we enter a new year.

In a stunning escalation, President Donald Trump has threatened to bar ExxonMobil from operating in Venezuela after the company's CEO, Darren Woods, expressed deep reservations about investing in the country's battered oil sector.

While exact figures for each aren’t always public, the pattern is clear: Many recipients, such as those in AI model training, allocate proceeds toward NVIDIA chips.

Consider reallocating to European equities, which may benefit from fiscal stimulus and resilient labor markets. Emerging market assets could thrive on dollar weakness, offering higher yields and growth prospects.

In the third quarter of 2025 we enjoyed a continuation of exceptional performance as the average portfolio has generated year-to-date returns of around 12.5% through October 20th.

Optimism flickers in the U.S. maritime revival.

Relying on initial labor figures to forecast market moves is rarely productive.

Trump's firing of Lisa Cook marks a perilous escalation in his campaign against the Federal Reserve, prioritizing political expediency over institutional integrity. As legal battles loom and markets react, the risks of continued interference could destabilize the economy.

The U.S. national debt is spiraling, and it’s poised to reshape the bond market. The government is issuing Treasuries at a rapid rate, but demand is struggling to keep pace.

The U.S. stock market is hitting record highs, luring investors with the promise of endless gains. But beneath the surface, the U.S. economy may already be in a recession, possibly since February or March. Weak labor markets, sluggish GDP growth and historical parallels to the 1970s signal trouble, with a bear market looming by year-end.

A Highlight from the second quarter is the very successful round trip for our trend following strategy. After the initial tariff news our trend following strategies reduced exposure to stocks, mitigating significant stock market losses. A few weeks later, trend following picked up on new upward momentum in the markets and tilted back into a full allocation of stocks.

The market’s response was swift: Boeing’s stock plummeted 5% in early trading today, per Reuters, reflecting investor fears about renewed regulatory scrutiny, potential legal liabilities, and increased demand for Airbus’s A350 as airlines and lessors pivot away from Boeing’s troubled fleet.

Bond investors, known for their forward-looking analysis, are now pricing in a future of higher yields, driven by inflationary pressures and ballooning deficits. The disconnect between Bessent’s stated objectives and the administration’s policy actions has left the bond market on edge, with significant implications for the broader economy.

Historically, private equity has used IPOs to offload overhyped, often unprofitable companies onto the public, reaping massive profits while leaving retail investors and retirement accounts holding overvalued stock. “Democratizing” private equity skips the IPO step, directly selling illiquid, potentially overvalued shares to the public. As billionaire investor Bill Ackman warned, endowments like Harvard’s may face meaningful losses on these discounted sales, as reported by Bl

As uncertainties linger—driven by trade policies, central bank maneuvers, and geopolitical shifts—investors must adapt to a new risk landscape. Diversifying into assets like gold, commodities, or select emerging markets, while closely tracking global developments, will be critical.

The Trump administration’s potential tariff reductions may offer short-term relief for businesses and consumers, but the broader implications of its trade policy are emerging.

The unified stimulus approach of 2020 has given way to the second Trump administration’s protectionist framework.

Just two months into Trump’s second term, investor focus has swung dramatically from the Fed’s playbook to the whirlwind of government policy coming out of Washington.