Episode 2: Trend Following Strategies - The Trend Is Your Friend

In this quarter’s podcast we go into detail about a specific type of quantitative investment strategy called trend following. Designing and managing trend following strategies is a core competency of 3Summit Investment Management. We believe trend following strategies add significant value to portfolios in terms of both improving potential returns but also in managing downside risk.

Markets have been more volatile lately and we may be in the final innings of a long bull market. The current market conditions make for a great time to discuss trend following and the many benefits they add to a diversified portfolio, especially in challenging markets.

Show Notes

Charts discussed during the podcast:

 Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

 Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

 Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

Source: Morningstar Direct, 3Summit Backtest

Back test disclosures:

Hypothetical Portfolio Analysis Disclosures - This analysis is designed to be a hypothetical view of how specific asset class allocations would have performed in the past. The portfolios represented do not represent live traded or managed portfolios. The data presented is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Historical data may not be accurate. The asset classes are represented by mutual funds, indexes and research datasets. The proxy data used for asset class returns cannot be directly invested in or traded. The 3Summit Portfolio is represented net of a 1% annual management fee.
Backtested Performance Disclosure Statements - 3Summit Investment Management is a registered investment adviser. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
The performance indicated for the model portfolios is back-tested. Back-tested performance is NOT an indicator of future actual results. There are limitations inherent in hypothetical results particularly that the performance results do not represent the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of retroactive application of a back-tested model that was designed with the benefit of hindsight. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually achieved. Back-tested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses.
Back-tested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. Specifically, back-tested results do not reflect actual trading, or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision making process, or the skill of the adviser. Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. Further, back-testing allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. Actual performance may differ significantly from back-tested performance.
Model Performance Disclosures - 3Summit Investment Management is a registered investment adviser. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Readers of the information contained on this handout, should be aware that any action taken by the viewer/reader based on this information is taken at their own risk. This information does not address individual situations and should not be construed or viewed as any typed of individual or group recommendation. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, and/or legal counsel before implementing any securities, investments, or investment strategies discussed.
The performance shown represents only the results of 3Summit Investment Management’s model portfolios for the relevant time period and do not represent the results of actual trading of investor assets. Model portfolio performance is the result of the application of the 3Summit Investment Management’s proprietary investment process. Model performance has inherent limitations. The results are theoretical and do not reflect any investor’s actual experience with owning, trading or managing an actual investment account. Thus, the performance shown does not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors had or might have had on decision making if actual investor money had been managed.
Model portfolio performance is shown net of the model advisory fee of 1.00% the highest fee charged by 3Summit Investment Management and sample trading costs based on our Custodian Interactive Brokers’ trading costs. Performance does not reflect the deduction of other fees or expenses, including but not limited to brokerage fees, custodial fees and fees and expenses charged by mutual funds and other investment companies. Performance results shown include the reinvestment of dividends and interest on cash balances where applicable. The data used to calculate the model performance was obtained from sources deemed reliable and then organized and presented by 3Summit Investment Management.
The performance calculations have not been audited by any third party. Actual performance of client portfolios may differ materially due to the timing related to additional client deposits or withdrawals and the actual deployment and investment of a client portfolio, the reinvestment of dividends, the length of time various positions are held, the client’s objectives and restrictions, and fees and expenses incurred by any specific individual portfolio.
Benchmarks: The Hypothetical 3Summit Low Risk Portfolio performance results are compared to the performance of a blended benchmark. The blended benchmark consists of a 60% allocation to the MSCI ACWI NR with dividends reinvested and a 40% allocation to the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index with continuously reinvested coupon payments.
Return Comparison: The MSCI ACWI NR represents the world stock market including emerging markets and was chosen as a good representation of global stock market exposure. The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index represents the world total bond market and was chosen as a good representation of global bond exposure.
The results do not represent actual trading and actual results may significantly differ from the theoretical results presented. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
3Summit Investment Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. Investments will not always be profitable, and we do not provide any guarantees. Security prices and market conditions may change unpredictably and rapidly, diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.